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Weekly Update 03-04-19

By On 3rd April 2019

A midweek run for The Way You Dance and then it must be nearly summer as this weekend was my first golf break of the season with a trip to Goodwood where we played two rounds within sight of the stands of the famous summer festival racecourse.  Really looking forward to Aintree this week and I have previewed the meeting below.

The Way You Dance ran his best race of the season last week at Lingfield and whilst he was only 7th of 10, he was only beaten by 3 lengths and had he finished strongly he could easily have won the race.  More details are below including a post-race update.

Aintree 2019

After the success of my Cheltenham Preview, I thought I would take a look at Aintree.  Not all the races are priced up in advance, so I will not make specifically staked and priced selections, but in case you are interested in my thoughts or you would like to sign up for all the same highs and lows as me by backing the same horses, my early thoughts are below.  At the time of writing, I have declarations for Thursday, but Friday and Saturday declarations are not known, so my apologies if I mention any non-runners!

Thursday 4th April – The first race of the meeting is a cracking grade 1 novice chase over two and a half miles.  I have to be with La Bague Au Roi here.  She skipped Cheltenham to come here and is fully effective at this trip.  Her splitting of Topofthegame and Santini two runs ago surely has to be the best form on show and she is a confident selection.  Kalashnikov might be the main danger as he showed plenty of zest before falling at Cheltenham.  Mengli Khan is too inconsistent for me, Glen Forsa was massively backed for Cheltenham but it is all potential rather than proven form and Bags Groove and Spiritofthegames look useful but hopefully just below top class!  Next up us another grade 1, this time a juvenile hurdle where a case can be made for all of the top three in the market.  Pentland Hills won the Triumph despite the fact that I had literally never heard of the horse until they approached the last flight and he was being called home by the racecourse commentator!  He may be top class but I would want to see that backed up before supporting him.  Band of Outlaws was impressive in the Fred Winter but he was definitely the stable third string juvenile before the meeting behind the ill-fated Sir Erec and today’s rival Fakir D’Oudaires.  Fakir was 4th in the Supreme which arguably is the best form of the three and he is the longest price of them, so I am not looking anywhere else!  The Betfair Bowl is another great looking race.  I hope Bristol De Mai, bounces out in front as I think he would be hard to catch.  If it is a slower run race then this will better suit Clan Des Obeaux, Kemboy and Road to Respect.  I am backing BDM, but keeping the stakes small.   The four grade 1 feast is completed by the Aintree Hurdle.  I think Buveur D’Air will win if he stands up and if you fancy one of the others, I would suggest going each way or without the favourite.  I would have time for Supasundae, Chtibello or maybe Summerville Boy in that case.  The latter would not be 33-1 for this if it was his first run of the season and arguably his earlier runs were on a fractured leg, so maybe he could be a spot of value each way in the without the favourite market?  I am all about Road to Rome in the Foxhunters.  He did not stay at Cheltenham and if the pre-race hype from there is to be believed then he will win this and the current 4-1 looks a cracking bet.  I do not have a strong view on the Red Rum Handicap, but I am with Whatswrongwithyou and FOrest Bihan each way.  In the last, I like the form of Misty Whisky and Whitehotchillyfilly and the latter is a big price so I will be on each way.  Maybe I will stick them in a forecast as well.

Friday 5th April – Cartwright was one of my horses to follow from Cheltenham so I will be on him in the Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle, but Brio Conti almost made that list as well and I will be backing him as well.  In the Top Novices, Itchy Feet might be a bit short having had a tough race at the festival.  I was impressed by Southfield Stone last time and I think the course might suit Aramon better than Cheltenham, so I will go with those two if they line up.  Rouge Vif would be another I would be interested in as he was fancied before coming out of his Cheltenham race and 16-1 looks big.  The Mildmay Novices Chase looks a cracker and Topofthegames looks a worthy fav.  I will be backing Lostintransalation without the favourite.  I would not be surprised if he wins, but I would be surprised if anything else is good enough to beat either of those two and I would rather back the latter at around evens without the fav rather than the favourite at odds on.  In the Melling Chase, I would be with Min at 2 miles, despite his poor run at Cheltenham.  I think this trip suits Politologue better though and expect him to confirm form, but I will probably back Waiting Patiently to beat them both as his 2nd behind Cyrname might be the best form.  I will be backing Janika again in the Topham having backed him into 2nd on his last two starts!   I still think there is more to come and 10-1 looks very fair to me.  In the Sefton Novices, I will be with Dallas Des Picton if he runs here, but if not I will stick with Champ.  McFabulous is my bumper selection.  He is well thought of and my faith paid off last time, so I will play up my winnings!

Saturday 6th April – Not sure what will run in the opener but I will be with Sire Du Berlais and Dallas Des Pictons if they run here.  I know it is a theme, but Dallas Des Pictons may also go in the Mersey Hurdle and would be a selection if he does.  Emitom is my other one for this race.  He is well regarded and I think he will win this if he turns up.  I would be with Us and Them in the 3.00 with a small saver on Lalor in case he returns to his early season form.  Whatever I back in the stayers it will be in the without Apples Jade market.  I do not want to back her, but I would not be against her as at her best she wins this without question.  To be honest I will leave a selection until the morning of the race.  In the 4.20 I will be with Kildisart if he runs here and I have no strong view yet in the 6.20.

The Grand National – The biggest race of the year in terms of betting and the shortest price favourite I can remember in Tiger Roll.  What a horse he is, but at 7-2 I won’t be backing him.  I might stick him in forecasts with my other bets as he might win easily and I want to be able to cheer him home, but with 40 runners around all sort of problems can come up and 7-2 is too short no matter how good he is.  Anibale Fly is the class horse having placed in the last two Gold Cups.  He did not win last year though and I see no reason why he will go better this year.  My recommendations are, therefore, Ballyoptic, Vintage Clouds, Mall Dini and Jury Duty.  Ballyoptic might well fall, but if he gets around, I like his chances as he has a touch of class and stays well.  Vintage Clouds was placed in the Ultima at the festival but surely that was a prep for this and he should run well if he gets around.  He is only 9 and I fancy he will have improved from last year.  Mall Dini is scarily similar to Rule The World in terms of form and the latter proved you can win your first race over fences in the National.  He would be my main pick.  Jury Duty was a good novice last season and stays well, I think he could run a nice race.

The Way You Dance

Those of us that attended The Way You Dance’s race at Lingfield last week had a good afternoon out.

Whilst he was shuffled back early, the pace slowed down the back and he followed the eventual winner down the outside of the field without using much energy.  The Way You Dance was 4th turning in, inside the last two furlongs, but a couple came up his inside turning into the straight and another came from behind.  He was still only two lengths off the lead just outside the last half furlong, but he could not go forward from there and finished 7th but only 3 lengths behind the winner.  I was left feeling that the drop back to 1m 4f was less important than the drop in class and that he might be OK over two miles in this class as he seems to enjoy a slowly run race.  I have held off from looking at another suitable race for him for now until he has fully recovered from the race.

This was his best run of the season so far and shares in The Way You Dance remain at only £360 per 1%, with 5% will be discounted to £1750 and 10% to £3400.  I only charge 10% to cover my time running the syndicates and this is further reduced for the 5% and 10% rates which really are excellent value.  Quoted costs are “all in” costs to 31st October 2019 and you will receive your share of prize money, plus full owners benefits and the sale proceeds from your share should you decide not to renew or if we sell the horse.

If you are interested in taking a share, please contact me and I will provide you with further information and the relevant paperwork.

My Brother

My Brother is absolutely fine and his recovery from injury is all going to plan.  He will not run now until the end of this year or the start of the next, but as he would have had a summer break anyway, he may only be missing a few runs as a result of this injury and hopefully, we will look back on this as just a minor inconvenience in career terms and he is still a horse full of promise for the future.  His value was enhanced with a great second place in a good race at Cheltenham before Christmas and with him being out for a period, now is the time to snap up a bargain in terms of shareholding!

If you are interested in taking a shareholding, please contact me and I will provide some details for you.

From The Stables

On Monday 25th March, Hadfield ran well for Neil Mulholland at Lingfield eventually finishing 4th.  Sleep Easy went one better coming 3rd in a five-runner race at Wincanton and Lee Side Lady was better again when finishing 2nd at the same course.  Green or Black ran well for a big priced outsider and was also 4th, so only one of Neil’s runners was outside the first four and that was The Twisler who finished a well-beaten 6th.

After no runners on Tuesday, The Way You Dance (7th) shared the limelight on Wednesday with Very Extravagant who was a little disappointing and was also unplaced for Neil at Market Rasen.  Thursday was another blank day in terms of runners but I travelled down to Fontwell on Friday to watch Neil’s two runners who both ran into the places.  Vexillum stayed on well into 3rd, whilst Milkwood looked a possible winner coming into the home straight but was collared close home and finished 2nd.

Saturday was a busy day.  Johnny Farrelly had his only runner of the week when Lady Makfi ran a cracker at Southwell.  She finished 3rd at a big price.  Neil went even better when Carrigmoorna Matt won the seller at Stratford with a well-timed run.  Vancouver was unplaced in the same race.  Moayadd ran well for a while at Uttoxeter but was ultimately unplaced and Vinnie Rouge, Cintex, Just for the Craic and Hollywood Dream also all ended up out of frame.

On Sunday, Alan Fleming had two runners at Limerick.  Big King was unplaced, but Champayne Lady was third.  There were no runners from our yards on Monday or Tuesday.

Getting Involved

Fees for both horses are all inclusive to 31st October 2019 and buying a share in a BG Racing horse is a decision that you will not regret.  All quoted prices include the purchase price of the horse and should you decide to renew for a second year, you will only need to pay training fees which are under £200 per 1% share.  If you are interested in finding out more about what is involved, then please do get in touch as I would be delighted to discuss things with you.

I issue weekly shareholder updates (which go into more detail than the blog) and frequent updates on social media.  Feel free to like the FaceBook page and follow the Twitter updates.

I also have an e-book entitled “Racehorse Ownership – Everything You Might Have Wanted To Know But Would Not Have Known Who To Ask“.  This is free and the download page can be accessed here.

Have a great week.

Phil


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